GM, this is your Daily Bolt briefing.
In this edition, we’ll be providing you some thoughts and opinions from respected industry leaders on some of the latest trends in crypto including Worldcoin, AI, and the current macro environment.
Also; tune in Monday at 11AM EST for our 2nd live episode of The Macro Show. Learn from Nick Drakon's experience and intuition as he gives his answers to the most pressing questions around the macro economy's impact on the crypto market today.
On Monday we released our Analyst Insight report on a pair trade involving going long MakerDAO’s MKR, and short Compound Finance’s COMP. After some positive price action and some sentiment on twitter towards Maker and the RWA narrative, we’ve decided to release a part 2 to our insight, where we revisit the trade. Our members can check that out here.
Stay sharp in the markets ⬇
1/ Steady Lads - Is Worldcoin the next LUNA?
Preview: Justin, Taiki, Jordi, and Alex discuss the macro conditions, controversies around Worldcoin, real-world assets, and more! Click here to listen to the full episode (42 mins).
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Here are some key takeaways:
Justin initiates the discussion on the recent U.S GDP growth of 2.4% annualized over the last quarter. He believes this is a sign that a recession is not imminent.
Jordi agrees that the GDP growth is a positive sign for the market, with the equity markets reacting positively. He also notes the disparity with the crypto market and hopes some investment will shift in that direction.
Taiki says that there are no buyers of BTC at $30k and mentions the lack of new retail interest in crypto, which he had hoped would be sparked by recent XRP news.
Jordi says that he is skeptical about Worldcoin’s tokenomics but recognizes it as a genuine project.
Taiki views Worldcoin's mass onboarding process positively from a retail perspective. He believes it can prime the market and make it acceptable to own a crypto wallet.
Justin asks whether the project's goal of being a Universal Basic Income (UBI) requires these tokenomics. He also says that he isn’t concerned about the privacy issues regarding the iris scanning process of Worldcoin.
Alex says that a strong Worldcoin token price will attract new users, comparing it to a nation-state's GDP attracting immigrants.
Justin shares some key metrics about Worldcoin's airdrop and loan to market makers, pointing out the significant control they have over the float at launch.
Jordi expresses concerns about Worldcoin, comparing it to Olympus DAO, Axie Infinity, and Terra Luna. He criticizes its lack of backing and sustainability, predicting it could inflate into a bubble and then burst.
Alex says that Worldcoin cannot currently airdrop in many restricted countries, including the US.
Alex suggests that if you control the supply and create a strong enough narrative, the token will eventually gain value. He says that he was initially pessimistic and shorted WLD, but later reconsidered when its price didn't fall as expected.
Taiki wonders if the issue would be mitigated if the system used Soulbound tokens (non-transferrable) or NFTs, rather than traditional tokens.
Jordi says that Soulbound tokens would be a better model, as it would reduce the risk of a volatile price and the potential for misuse.
2/ 1000x Podcast - The Bear Case for Risk Assets
Preview: Avi Felman and Jonah talk about the impact of XRP versus ETF news, the Ripple effect on the alt-market, and more! Click here to listen to the full episode (38 mins).
Read our Note (5 mins) and save 34 mins.
Here are some key takeaways:
The Future of Ethereum Staking and DeFi Integration
Jonah asks whether we are moving towards a multi-chain world or if Ethereum will dominate on-chain computing in the next cycle.
He supports the latter view and dismisses other ecosystems like Solana, and Near, as failures because they have reached a point of stagnant user counts and wallet addresses. Jonah asks Avi about his opinion on the multi-chain thesis for the next cycle.
Avi says that despite incentive programs having a limited duration, projects will continue to build on platforms like Solana, Avalanche, and Near. He thinks these platforms' novelty could lead to a renaissance, and if they manage to reach escape velocity, they could become successful real projects.
Jonah says that Avi's point seems to prove his initial argument about Ethereum providing everything needed for the current use cases. He says that there's no real advantage to one shiny alt L1 over another. He recognizes the potential for real-world assets to filter on-chain, starting with fungible global commodities. He suggests the creation of a tokenized carbon credit as a great real-world asset use case.
Avi agrees that the trading of carbon credits is controlled by a small number of entities, making it challenging for newcomers. He says the optimism in the macro world is due to a perceived stable economy, less likelihood of Federal Reserve rate hikes, well-performing markets, and decreased recessionary talk. He points out that a large percentage of this year's S&P performance is due to just a few top-performing tech companies.
Jonah presents a bear case for risk assets, particularly equities not linked to the AI boom. He lists several potential impacts, including disruptive technologies, writer's strikes in Los Angeles, increased cost of capital leading to job cuts, and the adverse effects of high-interest rates on commodities. He suggests a potential for stagflation as businesses struggle and consumers face higher costs. He highlights the delayed impact of rate hikes.
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