Notable traders TraderMayne, Kaleo, and Keyboard Monkey give their thoughts regarding trading, the merge, and more in the most recent episode of UpOnly hosted by Cobie & Ledger.
Trading Backgrounds
Mayne:
Does well in low volatility market
Hard stops before entering trade
Only trades on CEXs
Keyboard Monkey:
Mostly traded on CEXs
Dove into NFTs in 2021
Kaleo:
Traded derivatives
Does well in a trending market
Recently interested in using NFT charting to trade
Technical Analysis (TA) on NFTs similar to 2018 alts that nobody had conviction in and only traded based on Price Action (PA)
Thoughts on NFTs
Cobie:
Slippage very high for NFTs
Very low market caps even for popular projects
Very different demographic from general Crypto market
NFTs very similar to altcoins apart from these differences, both rely on community and speculation to sustain price
Doesn’t make sense to promote artists releasing alt coins, so why are people promoting artists monetising through NFTs?
Negative price action negatively impacts perception of artist, shouldn’t link artists community sentiment to price of a speculative asset
Most NFTs defeat the purpose of NFTs when ~90% of the supply is mostly fungible and only have minute cosmetic differences
Kaleo:
Value doesn’t come from utility, it comes from hope in asset eventually finding utility
NFT utility generally just collecting e.g. trading cards
Ledger:
Utility can be applied for things where technology being different for each asset is valuable e.g. ENS, IRL companies with rentable vehicles
On chain lending protocols outperformed off chain lenders
Value in code demanding payment, certain types of lending or real world asset purchases would benefit from being on chain irrevocable transactions
This also opens up liquidity
Thoughts on ETH Merge & BTC
Mayne:
One more big bear market rally
Revisit lows then cycle reset
Diminishing returns, gap between bear market low to next cycle high will be lower than previous cycles
When does recession end? Took until 2011-2012 to recover from GFC
Stock market rally ends very soon & can drag down Crypto with it
S&P up ~20% aligns with most bear market rallies
Kaleo:
BTC reverts to the 28-32K mean (around 3AC liquidation area)
ETH /BTC continues rally through merge
ETH likely rallies above 3K potentially soon after merge
Market then retraces to near lows
BTC has, to an extent, already achieved its narrative of being immutable money especially in poor countries
Many examples of alt coins having fundamental changes that end up being bearish after upgrades, main nets etc.
ETH/ BTC to ~0.11 , near ATH
Keyboard Monkey:
BTC has blown through all of its narratives (digital gold, inflation hedge, corporate balance sheet asset etc.), possibility of no new ATH for BTC
Needed ETH and BTC to both fall dramatically for flipping to be on the table
BTC probably continues ranging
USDC can be used as a stable store of value in poor countries better then BTC
Cobie:
Recalls 2017 narrative that alts will never pump again, that ETH will never gain traction
Zoltan theory of globalisation causing sustained high rates could maybe be bad for Crypto prices
Ledger:
ETH block space needs to get used, demand will be filled
Could be a longtime before BTC ATH
Information in Crypto Market
Cobie:
Could mostly keep up w/ info in 2017, not anymore
Even if you keep up w/ narratives cannot keep up enough to actually pick the best winners
Have to be full time to be on top of everything
Can be part time if focusing on one niche e.g. ppl focused on NFTs
Maybe flipping between two niches e.g. trading NFTs and alt L1s back and forth could work
Need to accept that you’ll miss out on things
Mayne:
Narratives today have become diluted because of large Crypto market caps, news doesn’t have as big of an impact is it used to
People should focus on the new hot things rather then things that already had their narrative play out
If you can only pay attention to one thing, choose a sector that will play out in the future
BTC completely correlated w/ DXY
Canadian Legislation limiting spending more than 30K on alts
Depending on how strictly it is enforced, could be avoided by Canadian users by using exchanges that have not limited buying above limit, using non KYC exchanges, or bridging on chain
Bitboy Situation
Actual lawyers on Twitter agree that Bitboy doesn’t have a valid defamation case against Atozy
Often very hard to prove defamation case in court
Bitboy might’ve never planned on actually going to court, just wanted to bully him into quitting and win by attrition
After one negative comment on Bitboy’s Twitter, Mayne faced a Youtube strike, Twitter account lock, and email for a Bitboy event
Potentially important for Crypto’s reputation
Best protocols don’t really need ads, especially those just promoting the token rather than promoting their service
Bitboyesque content is filling demand for simple videos just telling people what to buy
UpOnly tries to be transparent about sponsors so the podcast doesn’t lose money
With new bull market comes new methods of marketing